Engineers often say there are 7 phases to a project. I list them below:
1. Uncritical Acceptance
2. Wild Enthusiasm
3. Dejected Disillusionment
4. Total Confusion
5. Search for the Guilty
6. Punishment of the Innocent
7. Promotion for the Non Participants
I leave it up to the reader to determine where BP and the Obama administration are on the project phase continuum.
Older heads claim there is an 8th phase. It is:
8. Slaughter of the Wounded by the Auditors
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Get-There-itis
Get-there-itis is a disease exhibited by Type A personality types. Its symptoms are impatience, a desire for action and a focus on goal achievement. It is also sometimes known as Go Fever, especially in the aerospace industry.
In my opinion, Get-there-itis was the root cause of the Deepwater Horizon blowout. That is a personal opinion, based upon hearsay evidence but backed up by experience. When all the hearings are over and the reports written, I think they will find that the decisions of the BP representative on board the rig were the root cause of the blowout. Let me explain a little about the hierarchy on a drilling rig.
On a drilling rig, the Toolpusher is the top man for the rig owner. He is in charge of the entire rig and its personnel. However, there is one person who is higher than him and that is the "Company Man". The Company Man is the representative of the oil company that is hiring the rig. The oil company's engineers design the well and procedures to construct it and the Company Man puts them into action. In case of a dispute or question, he is the final decision maker. With modern communications, he can be in instant contact with the home office, but he is the man on site and his is the last word. A man does not rise to that position by being a shrinking violet or doubtful of his capabilities. You can bet that he will have a large ego as it takes one to be responsible for costs that rival the annual budget of a small country.
I think the BP's Company Man made a unilateral decision to circulate the mud out of the drilling riser and replace it with seawater in order to cut a couple of days off the drilling program for a rig that cost around $500,000 per day.
I make that judgement because I have observed similar behavior in my professional career. I was site engineer on a project when the project manager wanted to eliminate proof load tests on monorail lifting beams in order to save some time. Although it was counter to the specification, he wanted to eliminate it and wanted engineering to concur. I refused and told him that it was a business decision that could be made by project management but was not one that engineering would support.
In another case, a good friend of mine flew his airplane into the side of a mountain because he was in a hurry to get to his ski vacation and decided to fly through mountains in marginal weather. He killed himself, his wife and his niece, not the mention putting the lives of the recovery team at risk.
You have probably seen similar behavior. What about that guy that cut you off at the highway exit or blew past you at 90 mph. Clear cases of Get-there-itis.
So, it would not surprise me that the BP Company Man decided to take a unilateral action that ultimately caused the blowout. I cannot wait to hear his testimony to the investigating board
In my opinion, Get-there-itis was the root cause of the Deepwater Horizon blowout. That is a personal opinion, based upon hearsay evidence but backed up by experience. When all the hearings are over and the reports written, I think they will find that the decisions of the BP representative on board the rig were the root cause of the blowout. Let me explain a little about the hierarchy on a drilling rig.
On a drilling rig, the Toolpusher is the top man for the rig owner. He is in charge of the entire rig and its personnel. However, there is one person who is higher than him and that is the "Company Man". The Company Man is the representative of the oil company that is hiring the rig. The oil company's engineers design the well and procedures to construct it and the Company Man puts them into action. In case of a dispute or question, he is the final decision maker. With modern communications, he can be in instant contact with the home office, but he is the man on site and his is the last word. A man does not rise to that position by being a shrinking violet or doubtful of his capabilities. You can bet that he will have a large ego as it takes one to be responsible for costs that rival the annual budget of a small country.
I think the BP's Company Man made a unilateral decision to circulate the mud out of the drilling riser and replace it with seawater in order to cut a couple of days off the drilling program for a rig that cost around $500,000 per day.
I make that judgement because I have observed similar behavior in my professional career. I was site engineer on a project when the project manager wanted to eliminate proof load tests on monorail lifting beams in order to save some time. Although it was counter to the specification, he wanted to eliminate it and wanted engineering to concur. I refused and told him that it was a business decision that could be made by project management but was not one that engineering would support.
In another case, a good friend of mine flew his airplane into the side of a mountain because he was in a hurry to get to his ski vacation and decided to fly through mountains in marginal weather. He killed himself, his wife and his niece, not the mention putting the lives of the recovery team at risk.
You have probably seen similar behavior. What about that guy that cut you off at the highway exit or blew past you at 90 mph. Clear cases of Get-there-itis.
So, it would not surprise me that the BP Company Man decided to take a unilateral action that ultimately caused the blowout. I cannot wait to hear his testimony to the investigating board
Sunday, May 2, 2010
Road Trip
My wife and I made a drive to Natchitoches, La this weekend. The event was an award ceremony for the oldest grandson. He was being recognized by the Duke University TIPS program for scoring a 20 or above on the ACT. And he's only in the 7th grade!
Before the ceremony, we went to Lasyone's Meat Pie Kitchen for lunch. This is the place for Natchitoches meat pies and other Southern Comfort Food like dirty rice, fried okra, red beans, chicken fried steak. Its unpretentious and family friendly.
Saturday night we went seeking Grayson's Barbecue in the village of Clarence, La. Although Grayson's is a shack in the middle of nowhere, people come from miles around to get some of the best barbecue in the state. I prefer the ribs and beef brisket. Don't come here expecting white tablecloths - or any tablecloth at all! The furnishingx are basic, the decorations are rustic but the smoke house does an excellent job.
Before the ceremony, we went to Lasyone's Meat Pie Kitchen for lunch. This is the place for Natchitoches meat pies and other Southern Comfort Food like dirty rice, fried okra, red beans, chicken fried steak. Its unpretentious and family friendly.
Saturday night we went seeking Grayson's Barbecue in the village of Clarence, La. Although Grayson's is a shack in the middle of nowhere, people come from miles around to get some of the best barbecue in the state. I prefer the ribs and beef brisket. Don't come here expecting white tablecloths - or any tablecloth at all! The furnishingx are basic, the decorations are rustic but the smoke house does an excellent job.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
Oilfield History
The first saturation dives in open water were made in the Gulf of Mexico to clear debris from Hurricane Betsy. An eyewitness account of those days can be found on this link.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Residual Stress FAIL
The video shows what happens when one fails to take into account any residual stress that may exist in a system. The guy was lucky. All he got was a wild ride. Had the situation been different, he would have been a statistic.
Monday, April 5, 2010
Atlantic Coast Oil Exploration - The Big Lie
Everyone seems to be happy that Obama has opened the Atlantic Coast to offshore drilling. They fail to realize that his action was just a smokescreen - one that is easy to see through once a few facts are known. The first thing to understand is that there has been no oil exploration activity off the east coast for 30 years. The early wells were either dry holes, or like the case of the Manteo well off North Carolina. The state blocked any drilling activity for so long that Mobil Oil successfully sued to have their lease payment returned.The figure shown should help explain. This is a chart of the UTRR (Ultimate Technically Recoverable Reserves) estimated to be undiscovered in the US offshore as of 2003. This chart was prepared by the Minerals Management Service and is on their web site here. It is their best estimate as to how much oil and gas remain to be discovered. Note how much of the pie chart is in the Gulf of Mexico, Alaska and the Pacific versus the Atlantic.
Does allowing the oil industry to explore for these paltry amounts seem like Obama is serious about oil and gas development? The MMS has a good summary of the history of activity off the Atlantic coast. it can be found here.
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